Доллар упадет до 53 рублей: экономисты рассказали, как на этом заработать

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Доллар упадет до 53 рублей: экономисты рассказали, как на этом заработать

Американскую валюту выгодно покупать для отпуска и сбережений

Доллар упадет до 53 рублей: экономисты рассказали, как на этом заработать
фото: Дмитрий Каторжнов

Американский министр заявил, что его не волнует падение доллара , отметив, что слабая валюта хороша новыми торговыми возможностями. На его заявления уже отреагировали цены на золота: унция этого металла стала стоить $1350 — максимум за 4 месяца.

Что касается рубля, то по отношению к нему доллар стоит 56,34 — на 25 копеек меньше, чем вчера.

«МК» задал несколько вопросов о дальнейшей судьбе доллара и рубля финансовым аналитикам — замдиректора аналитического департамента Альпари Анне Кокоревой, аналитику АЛОР БРОКЕР Кириллу Яковенко, шеф-аналитику ГК TeleTrade Петру Пушкареву.

— Какие факторы обрушивают доллар и до какого уровня он может упасть?

А.Кокорева: Сегодня доллар снижается на заявлениях министра финансов США о том, что слабый доллар поддерживает экономику. Монетарные власти страны, несмотря на ужесточение денежно-кредитной политики, неоднократно дали понять спекулянтам, что стране нужен слабый доллар, что определило его динамику на длительное время.

К.Яковенко: Полагаю, что падение курса доллара может закончиться уже на этой неделе, так как пара доллар-рубль подошла к мощному уровню поддежки: 56-57 рублей. На этом уровне, полагаю, его не прочь будут закупить Минфин (в Фонд Национального Благосостояния), ЦБ (в золотовалютные резервы), а может, и казначейство, которому тоже совсем недавно выдали полномочия выходить на валютный рынок.

— Влияет ли падение доллара на рубль, стоит ли ждать усиления «деревянного»?

А.Кокорева: Да, влияет. Если сравнить пары доллар/рубль и евро/рубль, то мы увидим, что за счет падения доллара рубль активнее укрепляется к американской валюте и гораздо медленнее по отношению к евро. При прочих равных условиях, если доллар продолжит снижение, то укрепление рубля к этой валюте усилится.

П.Пушкарев: Потенциал у рубля расти есть: нефть у отметки $70 за баррель, и вниз не откатывает. Но даже если нефть постепенно спустится в цене до $63-65 за баррель, нелишне вспомнить, что доллар опускался в 2017 году до 55 руб 70 копеек, когда за нефть давали всего лишь $50 или немного выше. Так что при нынешнем уровне нефтяных цен, и при негативном настрое к доллару на мировых рынках, России можно ждать доллара по 53-55 рублей, возможно и еще пониже.

— Можно ли заработать на падении доллара: стоит ли покупать валюту или золото?

А.Кокорева: Зарабатывать на падении доллара уже поздно, тренд начался давно и вставать в него нужно было в начале. Текущие отметки не очень удачны для покупки валюты.

К.Яковенко: Цена в 56 рублей привлекательна и для долгосрочных инвесторов, и для спекулянтов, потому что она устояла апреле-мае 2017 года, а значит, велика вероятность, что курс оттолкнется от нее и сейчас. Тем более, что через неделю, 30 и 31 декабря состоится очередное заседание ФРС США, на котором в последний раз будет председательствовать Джанет Йеллен, а значит, можно ожидать более резких комментариев по итогам заседания и более агрессивного повышения ставки.

Для российских граждан макроэкономические факторы можно суммировать в простую рекомендацию: доллар выгодно покупать для сбережений или на отпуск, пока он находится ниже 60 рублей. Потому что даже Министерство Финансов в долгосрочном периоде ожидает более высокий курс в следующие несколько лет: в 2017–2020 годах средний номинальный курс доллара, по прогнозу Минфина, будет на уровне 64,8 рублей, в следующие 5 лет — 71,5 рублей, в 2026–2030 годах — 77,1 рублей. При таком прогнозе, а также учитывая опыт резких девальваций 1998, 2008, 2014 годов можно использовать момент для покупки доллара.

П.Пушкарев: Покупать валюту в нынешних условиях я бы не рекомендовал: она скорее всего будет стоит дешевле. В особенности доллар, так как он ещё и сильно снижается на мировых рынках. Подскочить вверх курс доллара может разве что если США все-таки введут санкции против покупок иностранцами облигаций суверенного долга России, но и в этом случае скачок доллара скорее всего будет кратковременным, и не более чем на 1,5-2 рубля. И переждав эту ситуацию, валюты было бы правильнее опять же продавать скорее, а не покупать.

— Аналитики твердили, что рубль вот-вот упадет, но он все еще на плаву. Что угрожает российской нацвалюте?

А.Кокорева: Высокие цены на нефть и позитивная макростатистика поддерживают рубль. Основным риском для рубля сейчас являются новые санкции, которые могут быть введены в феврале. Пожалуй, сейчас это один из самых главных факторов, который может негативно сказаться на отечественной валюте.

Источник: mk.ru

52 комментария

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