Имеет ли смысл вкладывать деньги в ипотечный займ в условиях экономической нестабильности
Многие годы приобретение квартиры считалось надежной инвестицией. С начала 2000-х и до 2014 года российская недвижимость стабильно дорожала. С предсказуемой инфляцией, ростом ВВП и благоприятным прогнозом развития российской экономики ситуация была предельно понятной: оформив ипотеку, человек получал не только место, где можно жить, но и престижный актив, который можно в любой момент перепродать по более высокой стоимости.
Прошлогодний обвал курса рубля заставил россиян пересмотреть свое отношение к ипотеке. Некоторые отказались от покупки квартиры из-за возросших ставок, другие — из-за потери работы, третьи — из-за испарившейся уверенности в завтрашнем дне. Спустя год после наступления кризиса прогнозировать дальнейшее развитие российской экономики не берутся даже признанные эксперты рынка. Так, председатель комиссии по аттестации аналитиков рынка недвижимости Российской гильдии риелторов (РГР) и преподаватель Российского экономического университета им. Плеханова (РЭУ) Геннадий Стерник ожидает восстановления рынка недвижимости только в 2019 году. Другие аналитики сходятся на том, что дно еще не достигнуто и падение цен продолжится в краткосрочной перспективе.
Редакция «РБК-Недвижимости» собрала три наиболее популярных сценария развития российской экономики — базовый, пессимистичный и оптимистичный — и попросила риелторов оценить инвестиционную привлекательность оформления ипотеки в каждом из этих случаев.
Пессимистичный
Пессимистичный сценарий предполагает углубление экономического кризиса и затяжную рецессию. В данном случае россиянам стоит ожидать разгона инфляции, падения курса рубля, роста безработицы и снижения покупательной способности. За этим неизбежно последует спад в строительной отрасли: сначала квартиры перестанут покупать, затем строить.
«При снижении покупательной способности ипотеку следует брать сейчас — пока рубль совсем не обесценился, — убеждена руководитель департамента ипотеки и кредитов компании «НДВ-Недвижимость» Кристина Шульгина. — Делать это стоит только в том случае, если вы можете позволить себе не самый минимальный первоначальный взнос в совокупности с ежемесячным платежом на грани предела ваших возможностей».
При обесценивании рубля значимость ежемесячного платежа будет снижаться каждый месяц: в условиях роста цен дорожать будет все, кроме собственной квартиры, стоимость которой зафиксирована в договоре с банком. Ипотека позволит избежать резкого удорожания квартиры в случае скачкообразного роста цен и лавиноподобного обесценивания рубля. В худшем случае к конечному сроку выплат за изначальную цену квартиры можно будет купить разве что рубашку — а значит, инвестиция в недвижимость удалась.
Базовый
Сохранение существующих трендов на ослабление экономики — это базовый сценарий для современной России. Приметы такого сценария — умеренная инфляция, стагнация в производстве, отсутствие стимулов к развитию и, как следствие, упадок в основных отраслях, в том числе в строительной. Накопить деньги на покупку квартиры за наличные в таких условиях будет сложно: в «НДВ-Недвижимости» считают, что при подобном варианте развития событий ипотека станет оптимальным способом зафиксировать свои сбережения.
Для примера Кристина Шульгина приводит двухкомнатную квартиру в микрорайоне «Красногорский» в поселке городского типа Нахабино Московской области. Сейчас такой лот стоит 3,583 млн руб. При покупке этой квартиры в ипотеку от банка ВТБ24 ежемесячный платеж может составить 32 834 руб. В этом случае ипотечный заем по ставке 11,15% годовых оформляется на шесть лет, а запрашиваемая сумма кредита равна 2,865 млн руб.
Здесь инвестиция в ипотеку защищает сбережения от обесценивания, а сохранение текущего курса позволяет просчитать долговременные последствия покупки квартиры на заемные средства. При базовом сценарии ипотека подойдет для консервативных инвесторов, которые не любят рисковать.
Оптимистичный
Сценарий для отъявленных оптимистов: экономика выправляется, курс рубля растет, уровень жизни повышается. Вслед за благосостоянием граждан недвижимость снова поднимается в цене. Брать ипотеку или нет?
«В данный момент предложение на рынке превосходит спрос, — объясняет Кристина Шульгина. — Сейчас застройщики предлагают различные комбинации скидок, акций, совместно с банками внедряют пониженную процентную ставку. К тому же в реализацию выходят проекты с хорошим дисконтом на старте продаж, а ипотечное кредитование новостроек идет с госсубсидированием. Это прекрасный повод для приобретения квартиры».
Стоит экономике начать выправляться, как девелоперы вернут цены на докризисный уровень — и ипотека вновь станет недоступной для «простых смертных». Следовательно, если верить в оптимистичный сценарий, квартиру нужно покупать как можно скорее, пока не начали восстанавливаться цены и не вернулся ажиотажный спрос.
Получается, в условиях кризиса вложение в ипотеку оказывается выгодной инвестицией независимо от дальнейшего развития событий. По разным причинам ипотека сохранила свою привлекательность — другое дело, что теперь она может стать инструментом не приумножения, а сохранения собственных средств. Впрочем, в условиях кризиса это уже немало.
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